In the second and third quarter of 2020 there was some panic behind the doors of some estate agencies. There was real concern of where Covid was taking us, how the market would cope, rising unemployment and the overall effect on the housing market. Months later and now in March 2021 we are far from knowing truly what will happen but it’s fascinating to see what the ‘experts’ are saying. Below are a few recent predictions by some key names:
Rightmove forecasts that house prices will rise by 4% this year.
Zoopla predicts annual house price growth will slowing to 1% by the end of 2021.
Halifax says house prices will fall by between 2% and 5% this year.
The estate agent Hamptons both believe house prices will stay the same in 2021.
Chestertons predicts a 1.5% increase and Knight Frank a 1% rise.
How do you draw any conclusion from this? There is some consistency with some generally saying around 1% increase in 2021 though Rightmove are bold in their statement of 4% and then the other extreme is Halifax saying a 2% to 5% drop. The variations are almost hard to believe and who is accurate? So much is unknown but upon reflection of the current market, where the unemployment figures are and the hope and believe that once businesses are allowed to re-open from mid-April onwards and with the planned lifting of all or at least most restrictions from mid-June we would suggest a steady but slow increase. It will be lower growth than recent years but it’s hardly surprising with the Covid chaos in mind. Undoubtedly the press will revel in any downward trends in growth but any growth is growth.